Pig price or usher in the strongest rising cycle in history
Due to the impact of the relevant epidemic, the production capacity of pigs has dropped rapidly. The market expects that the amount of live pigs in 2019 will drop significantly year-on-year, and the increase in pig prices for the whole year is basically a foregone conclusion. From the recent performance of pig prices, the price of live pigs continues to rise steadily. Analysts said that the relevant epidemic has accelerated and spread after the Spring Festival, and the production capacity has continued to degrade rapidly. The pig price increase cycle has started, and it is expected to hit a record high price and continue for a long time at a high level.
Pig prices continue to rebound
Relevant statistics show that after March 14, the national hog prices continued to rise, and the rising areas were concentrated in East China, Central China, South China, North China, etc. Some of the central and northern regions are more affected by the relevant epidemic. In these areas, pigs were forced to go ahead in advance, sows were forced to phase out and reduce the stock, and the price of live pigs also rose.
According to the research results of Industrial Securities (601377, Diagnostics), the relevant epidemic has accelerated and spread after the Spring Festival, and the production capacity has continued to degrade rapidly. The current capacity decline has reached historical extremes. Farmers have serious empty columns and the column is extremely depressed. The outbreak caused the sows to accelerate the decommissioning of the production capacity, mainly due to the massive elimination of sows and the restriction of introduction and breeding. It is estimated that the national production capacity declines by more than 15%, close to historical extremes, and will continue to decompose rapidly in the future. At present, the proportion of empty households is relatively high, and the willingness to replenish the columns is low. On the one hand, the relevant vaccines have not been successfully developed, and the farmers are afraid to fill the columns; on the other hand, the current price temptation is not enough, and the farmers are not willing to fill the columns.
"The pig price turning point has arrived. On the one hand, before the Spring Festival, the big pigs were sold in a concentrated manner, and the suppression of supply was greatly weakened. On the other hand, the sows were largely eliminated in the fourth quarter of 2018, and the current supply shortage was highlighted. The time when the demand is the weakest in the year has passed, and the demand is expected to gradually pick up. The pig price has entered the right upward channel, and there will be two waves of rapid rise during the year. The first wave is March-May, and the second wave is After June, the agency analyzed that it is expected that the pig price will hit a record high in the current cycle and run for a long time at a high level. Based on the current industry supply and demand pattern, the pig price forecast is raised. It is expected that the current cycle of pig prices will hit a record high, the high point range of 25 yuan / kg - 30 yuan / kg, and run for a long time in the high position, the profit of the first pig continued for more than 1,000 yuan for a long time.
is expected to usher in the strongest cycle in history
At the cycle start-up point, CITIC Futures Agricultural Products (000061, Diagnostics) research team believes that from the recent price point of view, the rising cycle has started. "In terms of the increase, we believe that the price of the second half of the year has exceeded the historical high price. The main reason is that the volume of the second half of the year has dropped by more than 15% year-on-year, which is much higher than the year-on-year decrease of 5.9% in the second quarter of 2016. The half-year price probability is higher than the historical high price in the second quarter of 2016.
In terms of market sustainability, CITIC Futures Research pointed out that it is expected that pig prices will remain high until the second quarter of next year. Considering that the sows can only release their production capacity after 13 months, we expect that after the farmer's profit in May-June this year, the sows will continue to increase, and it is estimated that the pig price will be at least until June 2020. High, considering the impact of the African swine fever epidemic, the price of pigs is expected to be prolonged.
From the perspective of investment, Guotai Junan (601211, Diagnostics) (Hong Kong stocks 02611) securities related research pointed out that the current market valuation is still at the bottom, can continue to share the cycle and growth feast. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the current cycle of pigs has different capacity. In the current cycle, while the pigs were able to refuel, the pigs also rushed out of the market because of the epidemic. Therefore, the supply of electricity was accelerated and the pig price rose rapidly. In the past cycle. The outbreak of the epidemic in China has disrupted the original cycle rhythm and external characterization, and the pig price is expected to hit a record high.