Anti-dumping investigations fall, poultry farming industry i

The Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China announced that it has dumped imported white feather broiler products originating in Brazil and imposed anti-dumping duties on these products since February 17. Experts in the industry pointed out that Brazil, as China's largest importer of chicken meat, has fallen behind in anti-dumping cases. Imported chicken prices are expected to increase, which will benefit domestic chicken prices, which will help maintain a high poultry chain and benefit poultry farming enterprises.

Good domestic chicken prices

The above announcement stated that since February 17, anti-dumping duties on white feather broiler products imported from Brazil have been imposed, with a tax rate of 17.8%-32.4% and a collection period of 5 years. . In addition, the Ministry of Commerce accepted the price commitment application of some Brazilian export enterprises, and did not impose anti-dumping duties on related products not lower than the promised price.

Previously, in response to the application of the domestic white feather broiler industry, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement on August 18, 2017, deciding to initiate an anti-dumping investigation on imported white feather broiler products originating in Brazil. The Ministry of Commerce announced the affirmative preliminary ruling of the case on June 8, 2018, and then made further investigations to make the above final ruling.

After the preliminary ruling, a total of 14 companies, including JBS Group, submitted a price commitment application to the investigation authority, and the investigation authority considered that the price commitments proposed by the above companies were acceptable. According to the provisions of the Anti-Dumping Regulations, the investigation authority decided to accept the above-mentioned company's price commitment application, and the commitment and the final decision will take effect at the same time. During the execution of the price commitment, the products under investigation produced by the above-mentioned company shall not be subject to anti-dumping duties if they are exported to China at a price not lower than the promised price; in the event of a breach of price commitment or other termination price commitment, the anti-dumping duties shall be determined in accordance with the final ruling. The tax rate imposes an anti-dumping duty.

Since 2015, Brazil has been the main source of imports of chicken products in China. As the largest importer of chicken meat in China, Boya Hexun data shows that in the whole year of 2018, China imported 500,000 tons of white feather broilers, of which Brazil accounted for about 82%.

Tianfeng Securities (601162, Diagnostics) pointed out that anti-dumping cases are falling, the cost of imported chicken meat in Brazil is expected to rise, profit margins are shrinking, the number of exporting China is expected to decline, and other policies will be further tightened. The domestic supply and demand structure of white feather broilers is good for chicken prices.

Supply and demand are good and frequent

[12]3] Under the African swine fever epidemic situation, the expectation of chicken consumption instead of pork consumption is obvious. In addition, the introduction of ancestral chickens has been relatively low in recent years, and the recent attention of poultry farming listed companies has increased significantly.

Yisheng shares (002458, diagnostic stocks) in the survey of institutions, the number of white feather broilers introduced is now much lower than the demand; the amount of parental white feather broiler supply is insufficient to cause the decline in chicken supply; The price of white feather broiler chickens fell; the price of commercial broiler chickens increased sharply; the consumption of white meat, represented by chicken, was increasing year by year and other factors, which made the industry reputation of Baiyu broiler recover. In addition, the environmental protection policy is conducive to the development of large-scale enterprises, laying a policy foundation for the intensive development of the industry, and ensuring the orderly and healthy development of the industry at the supply end.

The recent increase in chick prices has also partially confirmed the judgment of Yisheng shares on the industry. According to the chicken net data, in early January, the price of commodity chickens was reported at 4.55 yuan / feather to 5.05 yuan / feather. On February 16, the offer rose to 7.10 yuan / feather to 8.50 yuan / feather, an increase of more than 50%.

On the demand side, the consumption of white chickens was boosted by many factors. Tianfeng Securities pointed out that although African swine fever is not a zoonotic disease, some consumers still choose chicken instead of pork for safety reasons. Cinda Securities believes that the industry's production capacity is currently low, resulting in supply contraction. The current reserve ancestral chicken stocks are only about 540,000 sets, and the prosperity will continue and drive the profits of related companies to be gradually realized.

Performance or a higher level

Judging from the published performance forecast, a number of listed companies engaged in chicken business have revised their performances, and Yisheng shares and Minhe shares (002234) , the diagnosis of stocks) sharply turned losses, Shengnong Development (002299, diagnostic stocks), Xiantan shares (002746, diagnostic stocks) forecast net profit growth rate has doubled.

Yisheng shares said that it is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 360 ​​million yuan to 370 million yuan in 2018, which was previously expected to be 320 million yuan to 350 million yuan. The company said that due to the continued tight supply of white feather broiler market, the industry's prosperity continued to rise. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the sales price of the company's commodity-based chickens increased more than expected. As a result, the company's 2018 annual operating results forecast changed.

Minhe shares are expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 370 million yuan to 390 million yuan in 2018, which was previously expected to be between 230 million yuan and 280 million yuan. The reason for the change in performance is also that the sales price of the main product merchandise in the fourth quarter of 2018 has exceeded the expected increase.

Because the price of chicken products rose more than expected, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2018 was revised up to 380 million yuan to 420 million yuan, up 272.66% over the same period of the previous year to 311.89 %. Shengnong Development expects net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to reach 1.5 billion yuan to 1.53 billion yuan in 2018, up 376.04% to 385.57% over the same period of the previous year.

For the performance of listed companies in poultry farming in 2019, Galaxy Securities expects that, in general, under the double benefit of supply and demand, chicken prices will remain high in 2019, especially in the first half of 2018. Under the low base effect, profits are expected to achieve rapid growth. Haitong Securities (600,837) believes that the profit data of poultry farming enterprises will increase year-on-year in the first half of 2019, and the annual results are expected to maintain growth.

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