Winter storage + infrastructure rises Steel "strong repair"

On the one hand, it still maintains a high level of steel consumption, while on the other hand, the demand for winter storage begins to be released. The industry believes that the absolute value of steel inventories and the speed of accumulated warehouses are significantly lower than the same period last year. The inventory pressure is small, the price is willing to be strong, and the steel price trend is supported. After the holiday, with the start of real estate and the rise of infrastructure, it is expected that demand will be ushered in a round of strong repairs. This means that the steel sector already has a certain investment value.

Steel winter storage started

The steel sector was hot yesterday, and the constituent stocks were red.

Steel winter storage began as a trigger for the plate to move. The data shows that in addition to cold rolling, the inventory of the five major varieties has increased to varying degrees in recent years, while the cold rolling inventory has decreased significantly, mainly due to the significant reduction in cold rolling stocks. Social stocks rose sharply, but the increase was slightly less than the same period last year; while the factory-to-store ratio fell sharply. The factory warehouse was the high point in the spring of last year, and the factory warehouse fell more than 20% from the same period last year.

As demand has risen, product prices have also fluctuated. Last week, billet prices rose by 120 yuan, coking coal and iron ore prices were firm, coke prices continued to fall, and steel mills' overall profits rebounded slightly. The gross profit of thread simulation is 480 yuan/ton; the gross profit of hot coil is 192 yuan/ton; the profit of cold rolling is -68 yuan/ton; the gross profit of medium and heavy plate is 198 yuan/ton.

Port inventory data also showed that last week, Jingtang Port coking coal stocks fell by 39,000 tons, Rizhao Port (600017, diagnostic stocks) coking coal stocks fell by 10,000 tons, coking plant stocks increased by 16.7 million tons; Tianjin Port ( 600717, the stock market) coke stocks increased by 20,000 tons, Lianyungang (601008, diagnostic stock) coke stocks increased by 0.5 million tons, Rizhao port coke stocks fell by 20,000 tons, coking plant coke stocks increased by 68,800 tons.

Institutional sources believe that after the stock market stabilized, the demand for traders' winter storage began to gradually release; and due to the Spring Festival, it was not ruled out that some construction sites were rushed to increase demand. In addition, the current steel supply has actual compression. Once the winter reserves are low, the peak season is expected to usher in a round of supply and demand mismatch.

Industry profit improvement

It is worth noting that the recent international crude oil price rebounded sharply, domestic liquidity continued to be loose, and the current price of steel products fluctuated and strengthened.The color system fluctuated and strengthened. While the steel price fluctuated and adjusted, the small drop in raw material prices gave the steel enterprises a profit recovery space. The profitability of the industry increased slightly, and the profitability of long products continued to be better than that of the sheet.

Last week, the national blast furnace operating rate was 64.36%, Tangshan blast furnace operating rate rebounded to 53.66%. Steel social inventories increased by 453,200 tons, steel mill inventory decreased by 214,600 tons, and Shanghai snail purchases increased by 17.76% to 29,425 tons on a week-on-week basis. 123]

According to the analysis of Aijian Securities, in view of the 11-day advance of the Spring Festival this year compared to last year, it is expected that the total inventory of steel products started after the holiday will be lower than last year. It is necessary to be alert to whether the inventory during the large-scale accumulation period before and after the Spring Festival has experienced a large-scale rapid increase last year. In addition, as of last Friday, the relative valuation of the sector is at the bottom of the fluctuation range of the past two years, and the sector already has certain investment value.

In the process of transition from tight supply to expected supply and demand, the industry Profit shrinkage, low profitability or continuous continuation. In the context of the current shocks of steel prices, Guosen Securities (002736, diagnostic stocks) recommended high value-added industry leaders, and Liabilities, underestimate the value listed steel prices potentially high dividend yield.

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