The butterfly effect of negative growth in the automobile ma

(Original title: Butterfly effect of negative growth in the automobile market)

The event that several major automobile dealer groups jointly "blocked" the domestic first-ranked car vertical website car home has recently caused a lot of trouble in the industry. Shock. It is not appropriate to say that the car dealer group "blocks" the car home. The accurate statement is boycott. The cause of the incident is actually very simple. In the case of a decline in car sales in 2018, most dealer groups are facing serious financial pressures. As an important platform for car sales to obtain sales leads, the car home still announces the increase in membership prices. .

Although the details are difficult to understand, who is right and who has their own reasons, we should also note that the black swan event of the car home presents a fact: the negative growth of the car market The impact has come to be transmitted in the industry chain. Whether it is a car home or an easy car or other related downstream service providers, they are actually facing this pressure. With the negative growth effect of the automobile market, the entire industrial chain of the automobile will face all the unprecedented big impacts, and there will be unprecedented adjustments.

In the middle of 2018, the signs of negative growth in the auto market were more obvious. The small dealers and vehicle manufacturers who feel the chill of the market are in the development difficulties of many self-owned brands such as Lifan, Magic Speed, Beiqi, Southeast, Haima, etc. in 2018, and in the joint venture brand, Changan Suzuki, Subaru, GAC Fiat and others face the difficult fate of withdrawing from the Chinese market. In the past year, the number of auto dealers who defended their rights far exceeded the previous years. The reason was that the market was stagnant and the losses were serious.

On the upstream side of the supplier side, the impact is also expanding. The reduction of the business unit of Continental in China last year is an example. Bosch China executives also said that the total demand is decreasing, and enterprises are indeed facing the problem of growth. However, there are also positive variables, such as the end of Sino-US trade frictions, and the state ministry’s recent statement will introduce incentives for major consumer industries such as automobiles. Therefore, in the car market in 2019, there may be a reversal opportunity.

But the impact of 2018 is a fundamental difference from the previous car market. This time, the slowdown penetrated the confidence of most people. What this brings is a contractive development strategy that will have a huge impact on the entire industry chain. In the development of the previous three decades,The Chinese auto market has been developing at a high speed. In the process of rapid development, many problems are covered up by speed. Once the market stalls, the consequences will directly lead to the closure of the enterprise.

Taking automobile production capacity as an example, most auto companies are currently idle in production capacity, and the capacity utilization rate has not even reached 70%. Once it can't support its large-scale operation for a long time, its entire sales supply chain system will fall into a collapse crisis, and the company's capital chain will face the risk of breakage, just like the two brands under the 2018 Chongqing Yinxiang Group. The same difficulty. But the good news is that this can promote the elimination and adjustment of Chinese cars.

Chinese car companies have almost never encountered a market environment that is truly "difficult". In 2008-2010 and thereafter 2014-2015, there are corresponding stimulus policies. In this case, regardless of the competitiveness of the company, it seems that a small market can survive. This also makes car companies that survive in the Chinese auto market, such as cottages, still prevail today. This time, the decline of the market will help the industry to form a natural elimination and promote the improvement of management and planning. And this small friction of the car home, we can foresee the upcoming major adjustments in the entire industry chain.

In the past 20 years, the growth of the auto market has basically been positively correlated with GDP, but this year is the exception. In fact, there have been such a situation around 2014. In 2018, China's GDP is mainly from infrastructure and other industries. We can see that the growth of related industries is relatively stable. In the automotive industry, it is reflected in the growth of trucks and construction machinery. In the private consumption field, there is indeed a lack of consumption power.

We also suggest that under the current circumstances, do not rush to introduce short-term stimulus policies. In the long run, this is not conducive to the self-upgrading and internal elimination of the auto industry. If you want to have a truly internationally competitive automobile industry, how can you not see a little wind and rain?

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