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The China Investor Sentiment Index (CISI), jointly published by Peking University's National Development Research Institute and the percentage point company, showed that the investor sentiment index rose slightly in December 2018 from the previous month. This is mainly caused by investors' improvement in the SSE 50 sentiment. From an industry perspective, investors were more optimistic about the leisure services, food and beverage, mining, pharmaceutical and utility industries. From January 2019, the China Investor Emotion Index will be released monthly.
Blue Chips are favored
This index measures the optimism or pessimism that investors show in stock investments, with index values ranging from 0 to 100. Among them, 0 means extremely pessimistic, 50 means not pessimistic and not optimistic, 100 means extremely optimistic.
According to annual data, since 2008, the annual sentiment index of the CSI 300 investors has experienced flat, the bottom of 2015-2016, the recovery of 2016-2017 and the fall of 2018. Among them, the investor sentiment index value of 418 is 41.5, which is only higher than the market-adjusted 2015-2016.
From the monthly data of 2018, the peak CISI sentiment index appeared in January, reaching 43.2. The higher months were also in May (42.7) and September (42.4). The CISI sentiment index for December was 41.4, a slight increase from the previous month, but still at the mid-to-low level for the whole year. Market confidence needs to be repaired.
The report believes that the improvement in sentiment in December last year was mainly driven by the improvement of SSE 50 investor sentiment, and blue chip stocks were more popular in the month. From an industry perspective, investors were more optimistic about the leisure services, food and beverage, mining, pharmaceutical and utility industries. At the same time, investors' sentiment on CSI 500, GEM and growth in the month dropped significantly from last month.
Constructing a sentiment index system
This index is based on the collection of hundreds of millions of financial text big data that the network can reflect investor sentiment, using deep learning methods to measure text Chinese retail investors. New tools for emotions. The index not only contains past market information, but also reflects investors' willingness to invest and expectations of market trends.
China's investor sentiment index system is divided into attention index, sentiment index and pointsDisparity index. In addition to measuring the primary market's primary index, it also includes secondary sub-indices classified by sector and industry. After joining the investor sentiment index, the forecast of market yield, volatility and trading volume can be improved, which can be used as a new reference for business operations, depository and loan decision-making of financial institutions, and asset management. At the same time, it is carried out for policy-making departments and regulatory authorities. Expected management provides new information.
The first-level index is divided into the attention and sentiment index of the CSI 300 investors. In the second-level sub-index, the investor sector sentiment sub-index calculates the sentiment index of SSE 50, CSI 500, SME board and GEM investors. The Investor Industry Emotion Sub-Index uses the CITIC Level 1 industry classification to classify listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets into 27 industries and calculate the investor sentiment index. The investor sentiment style sub-index divides the stock into five major categories of growth, stability, cycle, finance, and consumption, and calculates the sentiment index separately.
Taking the industry investor sentiment sub-index as an example, the report shows that the five industries with the most optimistic investor sentiment in 2018 are leisure services, food and beverage, mining, medicine and utilities; and most pessimistic The five industries are integrated, defense, military, communications, non-ferrous metals and architectural decoration industries.